60 Years Against the Spread: The Best and Worst ATS Franchises

Methodology

We stacked every team's home and away games, tagged each as Cover / No Cover / Push (home_spread_outcome, away_spread_outcome), and computed a career cover rate excluding pushes. We required at least 250 spread decisions, so a few younger franchises (e.g. the Ravens, since 1996) sit on smaller samples. A parallel pass on ou_outcome produced each team's over/under lean.

import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)
h = df[['home_team_id','home_spread_outcome']].set_axis(['tid','o'], axis=1)
a = df[['away_team_id','away_spread_outcome']].set_axis(['tid','o'], axis=1)
g = pd.concat([h,a]).groupby('tid').o.value_counts().unstack().fillna(0)
g['cover%'] = 100*g['Cover']/(g['Cover']+g['No Cover'])
g = g[(g['Cover']+g['No Cover'])>=250].sort_values('cover%', ascending=False)
print(g[['Cover','No Cover','cover%']])

The Analysis

Over a long enough horizon, against-the-spread records should drift toward 50% — the whole point of a point spread is to split the action. Most franchises oblige. But a handful sit a couple of points clear of the pack: the Ravens, Eagles, and Steelers have all covered 52–53% of their games, a meaningful gap stretched across hundreds of decisions. At the other end, the Cardinals, Jets, and the Oilers/Titans lineage have been dependable line-fade material, covering closer to 47%.

There's a second, quieter story in the totals column. Some franchises simply play in higher-scoring environments — the Packers and the Titans/Oilers hit the Over most often — while defense, weather, and era push Chiefs and Giants games Under more than anyone. (Note this is the all-time view; Kansas City's recent offenses look nothing like their franchise history.)

A fair caveat: this is descriptive history, not a forecast. Rosters, coaches, and stadiums turn over, and the market re-prices every year. But as a “where does my team rank” snapshot, the 60-year ATS leaderboard is a fun way to see which fan bases have spent six decades quietly beating — or feeding — the spread.