The 21 Biggest Point Spreads in NFL History

Updated 2025 | 8 min read

Big NFL point spreads are football’s version of a stress test. To hang a line north of 18 points, oddsmakers have to believe the favorite is historic — and the underdog is almost uncompetitive. Using Spreadspoke’s full historical dataset, we pulled every game with a closing spread of -18.5 or higher.

The headline: across these 21 games, favorites went 21–0 straight up, but just 9–12 against the spread. The elites win. The number is what usually loses.

All games with spreads of -18.5 or more

Below are the 21 biggest closing spreads in our dataset, sorted by line size.

Date	Matchup	Favorite	Spread	Final Score	ATS Outcome
10/13/2013	Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos	Denver Broncos	-26.5	35–19	No Cover
11/25/2007	Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots	New England Patriots	-24.5	31–28	No Cover
12/5/1993	Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco 49ers	-24	21–8	No Cover
12/23/2007	Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots	New England Patriots	-22.5	28–7	No Cover
9/22/2019	Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys	Dallas Cowboys	-21.5	31–6	Cover
9/22/2019	New York Jets at New England Patriots	New England Patriots	-21	30–14	No Cover
12/4/2011	Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots	New England Patriots	-20.5	31–24	No Cover
12/16/2007	New York Jets at New England Patriots	New England Patriots	-20.5	20–10	No Cover
1/4/2025	Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens	Baltimore Ravens	-20	35–10	Cover
10/24/2021	Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals	Arizona Cardinals	-20	31–5	Cover
9/22/2013	Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks	Seattle Seahawks	-20	45–17	Cover
12/19/1992	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco 49ers	-20	21–14	No Cover
10/13/1991	Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills	Buffalo Bills	-20	42–6	Cover
11/1/2020	New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs	Kansas City Chiefs	-19.5	35–9	Cover
12/8/1985	Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears	Chicago Bears	-19.5	17–10	No Cover
10/3/2021	Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills	Buffalo Bills	-19	40–0	Cover
9/29/2002	Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles	Philadelphia Eagles	-19	35–17	No Cover
11/1/1992	New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills	Buffalo Bills	-19	16–7	No Cover
12/3/2007	New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens	New England Patriots	-18.5	27–24	No Cover
10/24/1999	Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams	St. Louis Rams	-18.5	34–3	Cover
1/29/1995	San Diego Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl XXIX)	San Francisco 49ers	-18.5	49–26	Cover

Across these 21 games, favorites underperformed the spread on average, despite winning every single matchup outright. The line captured the mismatch — but often overshot the true margin.

Chart: ATS performance on 18.5+ point spreads

This chart shows how often favorites covered the spread in these extreme mismatches.

Notable Games from the List

2013 Jaguars at Broncos (-26.5): The biggest spread in modern history. Denver still won by “only” 16, and Jacksonville cashed easily. Denver’s victory was closer than expected.
2007 Eagles at Patriots (-24.5): A.J. Feeley and the Eagles nearly stole one, losing by just three in New England’s undefeated regular season. Pats-Eagles point spread largest ever not involving expansion team.
1991 Colts at Bills (-20): One of the rare games where the favorite fully justified the number, winning 42–6. Bills overwhelm Colts in dominant win.
2021 Texans at Bills (-19): A 40–0 shutout — the blueprint of what oddsmakers are pricing in when they hang a monster spread. Bills shut out Texans 40–0.
2020 Jets at Chiefs (-19.5): Mahomes threw five touchdowns as Kansas City cruised past New York. Chiefs cruise past Jets behind Mahomes’ five TDs.
Super Bowl XXIX (-18.5): The 49ers dominated the Chargers in the most lopsided Super Bowl spread ever. The Super Bowl Point Spread Has A Strange, Strange History.

What the data says about betting huge favorites

Favorites went 9–12 ATS in these games, despite winning all 21 outright.
Late scoring matters. Many non-covers came from garbage-time touchdowns by massive underdogs.
Era clusters exist. You see runs of huge lines in the early 1990s (Bills, 49ers), mid-to-late 2000s (Patriots), and 2019–2021 (Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals vs tanking rosters).
Public perception drives extremes. Once a team becomes “historic” in the market, spreads stretch to the breaking point.

These 21 games are outliers — but they’re also a warning. The better team almost always wins. The bettor laying three touchdowns is fighting the number, not the matchup.

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