Weekly Tracker

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings 2026: ELO Ratings for All 32 Teams

Published: October 1, 2026 · 7 min read · Source: Spreadspoke Analyst data package (through 2026-09-28)

Previous edition: 2025 power rankings.

THE SHORT ANSWER

The Seattle Seahawks hold No. 1 heading into Week 4 at 1694 ELO, even after a 33–31 upset loss in Washington. Buffalo (1664), San Francisco (1618) and Minnesota (1614) follow, and all three are 3–0. Full table below.

Every week, Spreadspoke ranks every NFL teams by ELO rating, a single number that rises with wins and falls with losses. How far it moves depends on the margin of victory and on how strong the opponent was. The league average is 1500.

NFL ELO power rankings (all 32 teams)

Ratings are before this week's games. Move is the change in rank from last week's rankings.

RankMoveTeamRecordELOWeek ±SeasonLast Game
1–Seattle Seahawks2–11694−19+2L 31–33 @ WAS
2–Buffalo Bills3–01664+6▲ +41W 24–16 vs LAC
3–San Francisco 49ers3–01618+6▲ +53W 36–30 vs ARI
4▲ 1Minnesota Vikings3–01614+14▲ +57W 23–16 @ TB
5▲ 2Denver Broncos2–11610+13−8W 30–26 vs LAR
6▲ 3Jacksonville Jaguars2–11594▲ +32▲ +28W 35–6 vs NE
7▼ 1Los Angeles Rams1–21585−13▼ −37L 26–30 @ DEN
8▼ 5New England Patriots1–21580▼ −32−22L 6–35 @ JAX
9▲ 1Detroit Lions2–11563+7−4W 31–24 vs NYJ
10▲ 5Chicago Bears2–11562▲ +29▲ +33W 27–7 vs PHI
11▲ 2Kansas City Chiefs3–01558+22▲ +66W 24–10 @ MIA
12–Baltimore Ravens2–11553+100W 34–31 @ DAL
13▼ 5Philadelphia Eagles2–11552▼ −29−17L 7–27 @ CHI
14▼ 3Houston Texans0–31542−13▼ −77L 17–19 @ IND
15▼ 2Cincinnati Bengals2–11524−12▲ +46L 27–30 @ PIT
16▲ 1Pittsburgh Steelers2–11519+12+9W 30–27 vs CIN
17▼ 1Green Bay Packers1–21472▼ −51▼ −61L 14–35 vs ATL
18▲ 12Atlanta Falcons1–21450▲ +51−13W 35–14 @ GB
19▲ 4Washington Commanders1–21446+19−11W 33–31 vs SEA
20▼ 1Dallas Cowboys1–21445−10−5L 31–34 vs BAL
21▲ 3Indianapolis Colts1–21436+13−21W 19–17 vs HOU
22▼ 2Los Angeles Chargers0–31436−6▼ −92L 16–24 @ BUF
23▲ 6Las Vegas Raiders3–01434▲ +31▲ +105W 35–27 @ NO
24▲ 1Cleveland Browns2–11431+12+22W 21–18 vs CAR
25▼ 3Carolina Panthers1–21425−12+12L 18–21 @ CLE
26–New York Giants2–11425+8+16W 12–7 vs TEN
27▼ 9New Orleans Saints1–21425▼ −31+3L 27–35 vs LVR
28▼ 7Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–31424−14▼ −52L 16–23 vs MIN
29▼ 1Arizona Cardinals1–21399−6▲ +25L 30–36 @ SF
30▼ 3Miami Dolphins0–31386−22▼ −65L 10–24 vs KC
31–New York Jets1–21352−7+14L 24–31 @ DET
32–Tennessee Titans0–31283−8▼ −46L 7–12 @ NYG

Tied ratings are ordered by unrounded ELO.

Who has moved most since Week 1

ELO points gained or lost since the start of the season.

RaidersLas Vegas Raiders: +105 ELO since Week 1+105ChiefsKansas City Chiefs: +66 ELO since Week 1+66VikingsMinnesota Vikings: +57 ELO since Week 1+5749ersSan Francisco 49ers: +53 ELO since Week 1+53BengalsCincinnati Bengals: +46 ELO since Week 1+46BillsBuffalo Bills: +41 ELO since Week 1+41BearsChicago Bears: +33 ELO since Week 1+33JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars: +28 ELO since Week 1+28CardinalsArizona Cardinals: +25 ELO since Week 1+25BrownsCleveland Browns: +22 ELO since Week 1+22GiantsNew York Giants: +16 ELO since Week 1+16JetsNew York Jets: +14 ELO since Week 1+14PanthersCarolina Panthers: +12 ELO since Week 1+12SteelersPittsburgh Steelers: +9 ELO since Week 1+9SaintsNew Orleans Saints: +3 ELO since Week 1+3SeahawksSeattle Seahawks: +2 ELO since Week 1+2RavensBaltimore Ravens: 0 ELO since Week 10LionsDetroit Lions: −4 ELO since Week 1−4CowboysDallas Cowboys: −5 ELO since Week 1−5BroncosDenver Broncos: −8 ELO since Week 1−8CommandersWashington Commanders: −11 ELO since Week 1−11FalconsAtlanta Falcons: −13 ELO since Week 1−13EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles: −17 ELO since Week 1−17ColtsIndianapolis Colts: −21 ELO since Week 1−21PatriotsNew England Patriots: −22 ELO since Week 1−22RamsLos Angeles Rams: −37 ELO since Week 1−37TitansTennessee Titans: −46 ELO since Week 1−46BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers: −52 ELO since Week 1−52PackersGreen Bay Packers: −61 ELO since Week 1−61DolphinsMiami Dolphins: −65 ELO since Week 1−65TexansHouston Texans: −77 ELO since Week 1−77ChargersLos Angeles Chargers: −92 ELO since Week 1−92

Sample code: build the rankings yourself

The rankings come from spreadspoke_enhanced.csv, which carries pre-game and post-game ELO for both teams in every game. 

import pandas as pd

# Spreadspoke enhanced game file: one row per game, 1966 to present
games = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)

# Week 3 of the 2026 regular season
wk3 = games[
    (games["schedule_season"] == 2026)
    & (games["schedule_week_str"].astype(str) == "3")
]

# Stack home and away sides into one row per team
home = wk3[["home_team_id", "elo_home_pre", "elo_home_post"]]
home.columns = ["team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
away = wk3[["away_team_id", "elo_away_pre", "elo_away_post"]]
away.columns = ["team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
teams = pd.concat([home, away], ignore_index=True)

# Rank 1 to 32 on post-Week 3 ELO
teams["wk3_change"] = teams["elo_post"] - teams["elo_pre"]
teams = teams.sort_values("elo_post", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
teams.index += 1
print(teams.round(0))

The ELO update behind each post-game number uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field edge (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. Here it is as a function you can run on any game:

import math

def elo_update(home_elo, away_elo, home_pts, away_pts, neutral=False, k=20, hfa=65):
    diff = home_elo - away_elo + (0 if neutral else hfa)
    p_home = 1 / (1 + 10 ** (-diff / 400))           # home win probability
    result = 1 if home_pts > away_pts else 0 if home_pts < away_pts else 0.5
    winner_diff = diff if result == 1 else -diff
    mov_mult = math.log(abs(home_pts - away_pts) + 1) * 2.2 / (winner_diff * 0.001 + 2.2)
    shift = k * mov_mult * (result - p_home)
    return home_elo + shift, away_elo - shift

# Week 3: Atlanta won 35-14 at Green Bay
print(elo_update(1523, 1399, 14, 35))   # (1472.4, 1449.6)

GET THE DATA

The file behind these rankings, is included in the Spreadspoke ANALYST package. It covers every NFL game since 1966 with scores, closing lines, weather, and pre- and post-game ELO, so you can run the code above and build your own power rankings or test ELO against the spread.

See ANALYST pricing →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good ELO rating?

ELO centers around 1500 for an average team. Strong playoff-caliber teams sit above 1600; rebuilding teams fall below 1400. The gap between two teams maps to an expected point spread.

Methodology

All figures are computed from the Spreadspoke Analyst data package: spreadspoke_enhanced.csv (results with pre- and post-game ELO: elo_home_pre, elo_home_post, etc.) and nfl_elo_handicapping_master.csv (ELO, closing spreads and model edge per game). Coverage is all 48 regular-season games from Weeks 1–3 of 2026. The model uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field advantage (none at neutral sites, such as Dallas vs. Baltimore in Week 3) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. League average is 1500. This page is published weekly while games are played.

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