Massive NFL point spreads are rare — and historically, they’re terrible for favorites. Using Spreadspoke’s full historical dataset, we analyzed every game with a closing spread of -20 or higher.
The headline: Favorites went 8–0 straight up… but only 1–7 against the spread. These games are blowouts, but not blowouts big enough.
Below are the eight games in our dataset with spreads of -20.5 to -26.5.
| Date | Matchup | Favorite | Spread | Final Score | ATS Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/2013 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | -26.5 | 35–19 | No Cover |
| 11/25/2007 | Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -24.5 | 31–28 | No Cover |
| 12/5/1993 | Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | -24 | 21–8 | No Cover |
| 12/23/2007 | Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -22.5 | 28–7 | No Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | -21.5 | 31–6 | Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -21 | 30–14 | No Cover |
| 12/16/2007 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 20–10 | No Cover |
| 12/4/2011 | Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 31–24 | No Cover |
Across these eight games, favorites underperformed the spread by an average of 8.75 points.
This chart shows how rarely favorites cover when the spread reaches 20 or more.
Oddsmakers only post spreads above 20 when the mismatch is extreme — elite offenses vs. tanking teams, backup QBs, or historically bad defenses. But even then, covering these numbers requires four full quarters of aggression.
These games are blowouts — but not big enough to justify the line.
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