The Biggest NFL Point Spreads Ever (20+ Points)
Massive NFL point spreads are rare — and historically, they’re terrible for favorites. Using Spreadspoke’s full historical dataset, we analyzed every game with a closing spread of -20 or higher.
The headline: Favorites went 8–0 straight up… but only 1–7 against the spread. These games are blowouts, but not blowouts big enough.
All Games With Spreads of -20 or More
Below are the eight games in our dataset with spreads of -20.5 to -26.5.
| Date | Matchup | Favorite | Spread | Final Score | ATS Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/2013 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | -26.5 | 35–19 | No Cover |
| 11/25/2007 | Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -24.5 | 31–28 | No Cover |
| 12/5/1993 | Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | -24 | 21–8 | No Cover |
| 12/23/2007 | Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -22.5 | 28–7 | No Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | -21.5 | 31–6 | Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -21 | 30–14 | No Cover |
| 12/16/2007 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 20–10 | No Cover |
| 12/4/2011 | Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 31–24 | No Cover |
Across these eight games, favorites underperformed the spread by an average of 8.75 points.
Chart: ATS Performance on 20+ Point Spreads
This chart shows how rarely favorites cover when the spread reaches 20 or more.
Historical Context
Oddsmakers only post spreads above 20 when the mismatch is extreme — elite offenses vs. tanking teams, backup QBs, or historically bad defenses. But even then, covering these numbers requires four full quarters of aggression.
- Favorites: 12.5% ATS (1–7)
- Underdogs: 87.5% ATS
- Average margin of victory: +17.9 points
- Average spread: -22.9 points
These games are blowouts — but not big enough to justify the line.
Key Takeaways
- Massive spreads are historically inflated. The public overbets elite teams.
- Underdogs thrive late. Backdoor covers are common when favorites ease off.
- Only one favorite covered: 2019 Cowboys (-21.5) vs. Dolphins.
- 2007 Patriots: 0–4 ATS on 20+ point spreads.
Explore more historical trends with our full dataset. Join Now