As the 2026 NFL playoffs kick off, the Carolina Panthers find themselves in a historic position. Despite hosting the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium, oddsmakers have set the Panthers as 10.5-point underdogs. This marks the largest spread for a home team in NFL playoff history (excluding Super Bowls).
Using Spreadspoke’s enhanced historical data, we analyzed every playoff game where a home team was an underdog of 4 points or more. The data reveals a shocking trend: home underdogs of 4+ points are currently 6-0 against the spread (ATS) since the 2000 season. Big home underdogs also have a remarkable 5-1 record winning outright.
Below are the most notable instances where home teams were expected to lose by 4 or more points.
| Date | Matchup | Home Dog Spread | Final Score | Winner | Spread Outcome | O/U Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-09-2021 | Tampa Bay @ Washington | +10 | 31-23 | Tampa Bay | Underdog | Over |
| 01-08-2011 | New Orleans @ Seattle | +10 | 41–36 | Seattle | Underdog | Over |
| 01-08-2011 | Pittsburgh @ Denver | +7.5 | 29–23 (OT) | Denver | Underdog | Over |
| 12-30-2000 | St Louis @ New Orleans | +5.5 | 31–28 | New Orleans | Underdog | Over |
| 01-10-2016 | Seattle @ Minnesota | +4.5 | 10–9 | Seattle | Underdog | Under |
| 01-20-2013 | San Francisco @ Atlanta | +4.5 | 28-24 | San Francisco | Underdog | Over |
The data is clear: ignore the home dog at your own peril. While the Rams are heavy favorites, the Panthers are walking into a historical trend that says they are much more likely to keep this game close — or win it — than the -10.5 line suggests.
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