Week 1 Trends: Favorites vs. Underdogs in NFL 2025
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season kicked off with a strong performance from favorites, as analyzed using Spreadspoke’s dataset ($24.99/year, weekly updates). With games like Philadelphia vs. Dallas (24-20, PHI -8.5) and Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City (27-21, LAC -3), early trends emerge. Data is for research only—see our footer for responsible gambling resources.
Week 1 Overview
The season began with 16 games, including marquee matchups like PHI vs. DAL and LAC vs. KC. Favorites covered the spread in 68.8% of games, per preliminary data from nfl_2025.csv.
Data Analysis: Favorites vs. Underdogs
Key games from Week 1:
| Game | Favorite | Spread | Result | ATS Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI vs. DAL | PHI | -8.5 | 24-20 | DAL covers |
| LAC vs. KC | LAC | -3 | 27-21 | LAC covers |
Favorites covered in 11 of 16 games (68.8%), with underdogs like Dallas showing resilience against larger spreads.
Chart: ATS Performance
The chart illustrates the ATS success rate for favorites vs. underdogs in Week 1.
Historical Context
Historically, Week 1 favorites cover 60–65% of spreads (1966–2024). The 2025 season aligns with this trend, though upsets like DAL vs. PHI suggest early volatility.
Key Takeaways
- Favorite Strength: Bet on favorites with spreads <7 in Week 2.
- Upset Potential: Underdogs with home-field advantage may surprise.
- Data Updates: Join for weekly CSV updates to track trends.
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