To the casual observer, the NFL has always been a game of touchdowns and field goals. But for those who dive into the Spreadspoke datasets, the numbers reveal a much more complex story. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1966, professional football has undergone a radical transformation in how points are scored, defended, and valued by the betting markets.
By analyzing over 14,000 games from 1966 to 2025, we can map the "DNA" of the league. In this deep dive, we look at median scoring across decades, the curious case of the vanishing home-field advantage, and the weekly rhythm of the modern season.
If you think today's defensive struggles are frustrating, you likely didn't watch football in the 1970s. Our data shows a massive "valley" in scoring during that decade. In the 1970s, the median total score sat at a meager 38 points. This was an era dominated by the "Steel Curtain" and the "No-Name Defense," where offensive linemen were limited in their blocking techniques and defensive backs could legally maul receivers downfield.
| Decade | Median Total Points | Avg Score Diff (Home-Away) | Game Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 43.1 | +2.39 | 728 |
| 1970s | 38.3 | +3.04 | 2,006 |
| 1980s | 41.9 | +2.88 | 2,182 |
| 1990s | 40.5 | +3.22 | 2,438 |
| 2000s | 42.5 | +2.64 | 2,654 |
| 2010s | 45.4 | +2.25 | 2,670 |
| 2020s | 45.9 | +1.86 | 1,680 |
Fast forward to the 2020s, and the median total has jumped to 46 points. That 8-point swing represents more than just a "touchdown and a two-point conversion"—it represents a fundamental shift in the league's rules, prioritizing player safety and high-octane passing attacks.
This chart visualizes the dramatic scoring dip of the 1970s and the steady climb toward the scoring-heavy modern era.
Perhaps the most shocking revelation in the Spreadspoke dataset is the steady decline of the "Home Field Advantage" (HFA). For decades, the rule of thumb for oddsmakers was to give the home team a "flat 3 points." In the 1990s, this was statistically sound, with an average home-score margin of +3.22.
However, as we moved into the 2020s, that margin plummeted to +1.86. Why is the home crowd losing its impact? Analysts point to several factors found in our environmental data: the increase in silent counts, the rise of neutral-site international games, and better travel conditions for away teams. For bettors, this means the "automatic" 3-point edge is now a historical relic that can lead to significant model errors if not adjusted.
By isolating data from the year 2000 onward, we can see how scoring fluctuates during the 18-week marathon of an NFL season. Our analysis shows that scoring tends to "heat up" in the first quarter of the season. Week 5 stands out as a high-scoring peak, averaging 45.7 points per game. This is often the "sweet spot" where offenses have worked out their preseason rust, but defensive coordinators haven't yet gathered enough film to effectively "shut down" new creative schemes.
Conversely, Week 11 represents a seasonal trough, where scoring averages dip to 42.7 points. This likely correlates with the accumulation of mid-season injuries to key offensive players and the onset of inclement weather in outdoor stadiums. Modern totals models must account for this late-November "slump" to maintain accuracy.
Contrary to the popular belief that teams "tighten up" and play conservative football in the playoffs, scoring actually increases in the postseason. Our archive shows that while regular-season games since 1966 average 42.4 points, playoff matchups jump to an average of 44.2 points. When the stakes are highest, the league's elite offenses find another gear, often overcoming even the most storied postseason defenses.
Since 2000, average total scoring increases throughout each round of the playoffs culminating with the Superbowl's average total points scored of 48.9 points more than 4.5 points above the NFL average. Wildcard, division, and conference total points scores historically averaged 44.7, 47.2, and 48.2 total points, respectively. Home difference also matters a lot more in the playoffs with the average home points scored 4 to 7 points higher in the playoffs (ex-Superbowl which is played at a neutral site).
The beauty of a 60-year archive is the ability to find the extremes. The highest-scoring game in our record remains the legendary 1966 shootout between the Washington Redskins and New York Giants, which ended in a staggering 113 total points (72-41). Watch: 1966 Giants at Redskins Highlights (113 Total Points) . On the flip side, we have the "Mud Bowls" and defensive slogs. Five games in our database have finished with a total score of just 3 points—most recently in 1993. These games serve as a reminder that despite the league's best efforts to boost scoring, weather and elite defense can still render even the best passing offenses dormant.
What does this mean for the next generation of sports analysts? The data tells us that the NFL is a "moving target." A model built on 1990s home-field advantage statistics will fail in 2025. A strategy that ignores the Week 11 scoring dip will miss out on valuable "Under" opportunities. The key to finding an edge in the modern market is normalization. By using a canonical dataset like Spreadspoke, researchers can account for these decade-over-decade shifts and build models that aren't just looking at what happened last week, but how the game itself is evolving.
Want to explore more extremes in the data — biggest spreads, biggest blowouts, and everything in between? All of these games (and thousands more) live in the full Spreadspoke historical dataset.